- USD/INR remains pressured after posting the biggest weekly loss since early July.
- Market sentiment improves in Asia as China announces more stimulus, central bankers flashed mixed signals at Jackson Hole.
- Positioning for the key data, light calendar also allow Indian Rupee to remain firmer.
- India Q2 GDP, US NFP and Fed’s preferred inflation gauge eyed for clear directions.
USD/INR remains pressured around 82.55 after posting the first weekly loss in five, as well as marking the biggest weekly loss since early July, as market players brace for this week’s top-tier data from India and the US. Additionally favoring the Indian Rupee (INR) buyers could be the cautious optimism in the Asia-Pacific region, mainly due to China’s stimulus.
While portraying the mood, the MSCI’s Index of the Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose around 1.20% intraday after reversing from a 5.5-month low the last week. Additionally, Japan’s Nikkei 225 jumped 1.7% on a day whereas stock indices in China rose around 2.0% intraday each to underpin optimism of Indian share traders, as well as favor the INR bulls.
The introduction of one more measure to boost China’s economic activity, via halving the current stamp duty of 0.1% on stock trading, favors sentiment in Asia. On the same line could be the news from the Wall Street Journal (WSJ) which cites people familiar with the decision-making process in China to highlight Chinese Communist Party Chairman Xi Jinping’s deep-rooted philosophical objections to Western-style consumption-driven growth, suggesting more stimulus ahead.
Additionally, hopes of witnessing an upbeat India second quarter (Q2) 2023 Gross Domestic Product (GDP) details, as well as the recent pullback in the US Dollar Index (DXY), also underpin the Indian Rupee strength. Furthermore, softer Oil Price also weighs on the USD/INR pair due to India’s reliance on energy imports and record-high budget deficit.
That said, the US Dollar Index (DXY) retreated from the highest level since June 01 to around 104.00 while the WTI crude oil prints a three-day downtrend near $79.80 by the press time.
It’s worth noting that the global central bankers tried defending hawkish monetary policies, except for Japan, at the annual Jackson Hole Symposium in the last week. However, their statements appear mixed as the majority of them hesitated suggesting more rate hikes and highlighted the data dependency, which in turn allows the traders to remain optimistic of late.
Alternatively, the US-China tension about the ongoing trade talks in China joins the comparatively more hawkish Fed bias that the RBI to put a floor under the USD/INR prices. Furthermore, fears of economic slowdown in China also challenge the Indian Rupee byers.
Looking forward, India’s Q2 GDP will be crucial for the USD/INR pair traders to watch amid the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) defense of higher rates and economic optimism. Also important will be the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) favorite inflation gauge, namely the Core Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) Price Index for July, and the monthly employment data.
Technical analysis
Even if a one-week-old descending trend line and 21-DMA restrict the immediate upside of the USD/INR pair to around 82.85, the sellers need validation from the 200-DMA support near 82.25 for conviction.
