The flash estimate for HICP inflation showed an unexpected but marginal rise in headline inflation in July, to 2.6% from 2.5% in June. Core inflation held steady at 2.9%, against our expectations for a fall to 2.7%, ABN AMRO senior economist Bill Diviney notes.

Inflation disappoints in July, but silver linings below the surface

“Looking at the main drivers, energy came in stronger, rising 1.3% y/y (June: 0.2%), with the recent rise in petrol prices and higher administrative gas tariffs in France offset to a lesser degree than expected by the continued falls in wholesale energy prices (as indicated by the energy PPI). Services inflation fell marginally to 4% from 4.1%; we had expected a bigger drop to 3.8%.”

“News reports suggest that hoteliers and airlines are having to lower prices with travelers clearly becoming more price-sensitive. This kind of pushback bodes well for the medium-term inflation outlook. Food inflation also edged further lower, to a new 2 & 1/2 year low of 2.3. Goods inflation was broadly steady at a subdued 0.8% y/y, having hovered in a 0.7-0.9% range for the past 5 months.”

“The data is likely broadly consistent with the ECB’s expectation for July, based on its quarterly projection for Q3 and the strong downward base effects which will push inflation lower in August and September. Following today’s figure, we expect inflation to fall to 2.2% in August and be back at the 2% target in September. We continue to expect the ECB to resume rate cuts in September.”