- AUD/JPY climbs to near 97.40 in Thursday’s Asian session, adding 0.20% on the day.
- The Australian dropped to 3.9% in November from 4.1% in October, stronger than expected.
- BoJ rate hike uncertainty drags the JPY lower.
The AUD/JPY cross gathers strength to around 97.40 during the Asian session on Thursday. The Aussie gains traction after the release of the Australian employment report. Traders will keep an eye on the Japanese Tankan Large Manufacturing Index for the fourth quarter (Q4), which is still later on Tuesday
Data released by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed on Thursday that the country’s Unemployment Rate ticked lower to 3.9% in November from 4.1% in October. This reading came in below the market consensus of 4.2%. Additionally, the Australian Employment Change arrived at 35.6K in November from 12.1K in October (revised from 15.9K).
This figure came in better than the 25.0K expected. The Australian Dollar (AUD) attracts some buyers in an immediate reaction to the upbeat employment report. This report prompts traders to lower their bets for the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) rate cut and boosts the Australian Dollar (AUD).
On the other hand, the uncertainty over the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) rate hike in December might cap the downside for the cross. BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda signaled that the next rate hike is approaching, supported by solid underlying inflation data, while the dovish policymaker Toyoaki Nakamura warned last week that the Japanese central bank must move cautiously in raising rates. Meanwhile, the escalating geopolitical tension in the Middle East and global economic uncertainty could boost the safe-haven flows, benefiting the JPY.
Employment FAQs
Labor market conditions are a key element to assess the health of an economy and thus a key driver for currency valuation. High employment, or low unemployment, has positive implications for consumer spending and thus economic growth, boosting the value of the local currency. Moreover, a very tight labor market – a situation in which there is a shortage of workers to fill open positions – can also have implications on inflation levels and thus monetary policy as low labor supply and high demand leads to higher wages.
The pace at which salaries are growing in an economy is key for policymakers. High wage growth means that households have more money to spend, usually leading to price increases in consumer goods. In contrast to more volatile sources of inflation such as energy prices, wage growth is seen as a key component of underlying and persisting inflation as salary increases are unlikely to be undone. Central banks around the world pay close attention to wage growth data when deciding on monetary policy.
The weight that each central bank assigns to labor market conditions depends on its objectives. Some central banks explicitly have mandates related to the labor market beyond controlling inflation levels. The US Federal Reserve (Fed), for example, has the dual mandate of promoting maximum employment and stable prices. Meanwhile, the European Central Bank’s (ECB) sole mandate is to keep inflation under control. Still, and despite whatever mandates they have, labor market conditions are an important factor for policymakers given its significance as a gauge of the health of the economy and their direct relationship to inflation.
