Fundamental
Overview
Bitcoin has been under
heavy selling pressure for the entire month of June as a couple of bearish
drivers continued to weigh on the market. First, we had the fears around the Bitcoin
repayments to old Mt. Gox clients with expectations that they would sell their Bitcoins or at least part of it. More recently, CNBC
reported that “Germany’s government has been selling hundreds of millions
of dollars worth of seized bitcoins” and it still holds roughly 32,488 bitcoins
which are worth 1.9$ billion dollars.
Bitcoin
Technical Analysis – Daily Timeframe
Bitcoin Daily
On the daily chart, we can
see that Bitcoin eventually dropped below the key 60K support
zone and the major trendline
around the 58K level. This might weigh on the sentiment and it gives the
sellers a bit more control.
The price is now
consolidating right beneath the key levels with the sellers piling in with a
defined risk above the 60K level to position for a drop into new lows. The
buyers will want to see the price rising back above the 60K level to regain
some confidence and start targeting new highs.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 4 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 4 hour
On the 4 hour chart, we can
see that the price retested the major upward trendline recently but failed to
make a new low as the market went into consolidation. We can see that from a
risk management perspective, the sellers have a nice risk to reward setup
around the downward trendline and the 60K resistance. That’s the zone the
buyers will need to break to turn the sentiment around and increase the bullish
bets into new highs.
Bitcoin Technical
Analysis – 1 hour Timeframe
Bitcoin 1 hour
On the 1 hour chart, we can
see that there’s not much to do here as the price action remains rangebound.
The sellers will want to lean on the resistance, while the buyers will want to
see a breakout to the upside. The red lines define the average daily range for today.
Upcoming
Catalysts
Today we have Fed Chair Powell testifying to Congress and the markets will be
focused on any view or hint about monetary policy after the recent NFP report.
Thursday will be the most important day of the week as we get the US CPI and
the US Jobless Claims figures. Finally, on Friday, we conclude the week with
the US PPI and the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey.
