Bank of Japan, Yen News and Analysis

• Bank of Japan hikes rates by 0.15%, raising the policy rate to 0.25%
• BoJ outlines flexible, quarterly bond tapering timeline
• Japanese yen initially sold off but strengthened after the announcement

BoJ Hikes to 0.25% and Outlines Bond Tapering Timeline

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) voted 7-2 in favour of a rate hike which will take the policy rate from 0.1% to 0.25%. The Bank also specified exact figures regarding its proposed bond purchases instead of a typical range as it seeks to normalise monetary policy and slowly step away form massive stimulus.

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Bond Tapering Timeline

The BoJ revealed it will reduce Japanese government bond (JGB) purchases by around Y400 billion each quarter in principle and will reduce monthly JGB purchases to Y3 trillion in the three months from January to March 2026.

The BoJ stated if the aforementioned outlook for economic activity and prices is realized, the BoJ will continue to raise the policy interest rate and adjust the degree of monetary accommodation.

The decision to reduce the amount of accommodation was deemed appropriate in the pursuit of achieving the 2% price target in a stable and sustainable manner. However, the BoJ flagged negative real interest rates as a reason to support economic activity and maintain an accommodative monetary environment for the time being.

The full quarterly outlook expects prices and wages to remain higher, in line with the trend, with private consumption expected to be impacted by higher prices but is projected to rise moderately.

Source: Bank of Japan, Quarterly Outlook Report July 2024

Japanese Yen Appreciates after Hawkish BoJ Meeting

The Yen’s initial reaction was expectedly volatile, losing ground at first but recovering rather quickly after the hawkish measures had time to filter to the market. The yen’s recent appreciation has come at a time when the US economy has moderated and the BoJ is witnessing a virtuous relationship between wages and prices which has emboldened the committee to reduce monetary accommodation. In addition, the sharp yen appreciation immediately after lower US CPI data has been the topic of much speculation as markets suspect FX intervention from Tokyo officials.

Japanese Index (Equal Weighted Average of USD/JPY, GBP/JPY, AUD/JPY and EUR/JPY)

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

One of the many interesting takeaways from the BoJ meeting concerns the effect the FX markets are now having on inflation. Previously, BoJ Governor Kazuo Ueda confirmed that the weaker yen made no significant contribution to rising price levels but this time around Ueda explicitly mentioned the weaker yen as one of the reasons for the rate hike.

As such, there is more of a focus on the level of USD/JPY, with a bearish continuation in the works if the Fed decides to lower the Fed funds rate this evening. The 152.00 marker can be seen as a tripwire for a bearish continuation as it is the level pertaining to last year’s high before the confirmed FX intervention which sent USD/JPY sharply lower.

The RSI has gone from overbought to oversold in a very short space of time, revealing the increased volatility of the pair. Japanese officials will be hoping for a dovish outcome later this evening when the Fed decide whether its appropriate to lower the Fed funds rate. 150.00 is the next relevant level of support.

USD/JPY Daily Chart

Source: TradingView, prepared by Richard Snow

— Written by Richard Snow for DailyFX.com

Contact and follow Richard on Twitter: @RichardSnowFX