What’s priced in for the ECB ahead of today’s speech from President Christine Lagarde and her 3 pm ET speech? The market is priced 50/50 for whether there will be a hike on September 14 and that rises to above 70% for the October meeting and then fades in 2024.

I wrote earlier that Lagarde may steal the headlines from Powell today if she signals that the ECB is ready to pause. There’s evidence to believe that ECB officials are prepping the market for exactly that.

The ECB is still waiting for an inflation report before the meeting so Lagarde could put today and dwell on the data like Powell. Unlike the Fed, the ECB doesn’t mind an uncertain market heading into the meeting and they could always leak something later. But Lagarde likes the spotlight and she has an opportunity to make waves today. Moreover, I’ve seen the eurozone data and it’s clear the economy is slowing down; rate hikes likely aren’t necessary.