The recent rally in the euro hasn’t gotten much attention because there isn’t a great fundamental backing behind it. Europe’s economy continues to struggle and the move is mostly about broader US dollar selling. That said, sometimes the technicals lead the fundamentals and the poor economy in Europe is priced in at this point while a US slowdown would be a surprise.

The pair is also beaten-down in the longer term from the 1.15-ish pre-pandemic space.

I find it hard to chase anything in Europe but there are a nice series of higher lows and it would be easy enough to squeeze the shorts, at least up to 1.12. I don’t see much of a catalyst in the week ahead though.