A note from economists at the investment bank. I haven’t spotted it yet but news wires carrying the highlights.

In summary:

• cuts US recession likelihood to 20% from 25%, and says it may cut further, to 15%, if the nonfarm payroll report for August is ‘reasonably good’
• GS cite the retail sales data, best since early in 2023, and the jobless claims data showing the fewest requests for unemployment benefits in six weeks

Goldman economists say they are even more confident now a 25bp rate cut from the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) September meeting (17 and 18th), but a disappointment on the August jobs report could trigger a 50bp cut.

—

Retail Sales data was out on Thursday last week, a huge beat of consensus: