- NZD/USD loses ground due to risk aversion ahead of the Fed Chair Powell’s speech scheduled on Friday.
- The recent FOMC Minutes suggested that most Fed officials agreed on a rate cut in September.
- The New Zealand Dollar declines as Retail Sales is expected to fall by 1.0% QoQ for Q2.
NZD/USD breaks its four-day winning streak, trading around 0.6150 during the Asian session on Thursday. This downside of the NZD/USD pair could be attributed to the improved US Dollar (USD) amid higher Treasury yields.
Traders adopt caution ahead of the Federal Reserve (Fed) Chair Jerome Powell’s keynote speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Symposium on Friday. Powell may deliver a statement about the possibility of interest rate cuts in the United States (US) is highly anticipated.
However, the upside of the US Dollar could be limited as the Federal Reserve is anticipated to deliver 100 basis points (bps) in rate cuts by the end of this year. However, there is division among market analysts on whether the Fed will implement a 25 or 50 bps cut at its September meeting.
CME FedWatch Tool suggests that the markets are now pricing in a nearly 65.5% odds of a 25 basis point (bps) Fed rate cut in its September meeting, down from 71.0% a day ago. The probability of a 50 basis point rate cut increased to 34.5% from 29.0% a day earlier.
FOMC Minutes for July’s policy meeting indicated that most Fed officials agreed last month that they would likely cut their benchmark interest rate at the upcoming meeting in September as long as inflation continued to cool. Furthermore, traders await Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s upcoming speech at Jackson Hole on Friday.
In New Zealand, the dovish remarks from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) after a surprise rate cut last week might have put pressure on the New Zealand Dollar (NZD), limiting the upside of the NZD/USD pair.
A close trade partner China is exploring a new approach to bolster its ailing real estate market by permitting local governments to use special bonds to purchase unsold properties, according to Bloomberg.
New Zealand’s Retail Sales for the second quarter will be due on Friday, with markets expecting a fall of 1.0% quarter-on-quarter after a 0.5% growth in the first quarter, which was the first rise in nine quarters.
New Zealand Dollar PRICE Today
The table below shows the percentage change of New Zealand Dollar (NZD) against listed major currencies today. New Zealand Dollar was the weakest against the Canadian Dollar.
| USD | EUR | GBP | JPY | CAD | AUD | NZD | CHF | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 0.07% | 0.05% | 0.19% | -0.03% | 0.18% | 0.16% | 0.05% | |
| EUR | -0.07% | -0.03% | 0.08% | -0.11% | 0.11% | 0.06% | -0.03% | |
| GBP | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.10% | -0.07% | 0.14% | 0.10% | -0.00% | |
| JPY | -0.19% | -0.08% | -0.10% | -0.29% | 0.01% | -0.03% | -0.14% | |
| CAD | 0.03% | 0.11% | 0.07% | 0.29% | 0.22% | 0.19% | 0.08% | |
| AUD | -0.18% | -0.11% | -0.14% | -0.01% | -0.22% | -0.03% | -0.14% | |
| NZD | -0.16% | -0.06% | -0.10% | 0.03% | -0.19% | 0.03% | -0.11% | |
| CHF | -0.05% | 0.03% | 0.00% | 0.14% | -0.08% | 0.14% | 0.11% |
The heat map shows percentage changes of major currencies against each other. The base currency is picked from the left column, while the quote currency is picked from the top row. For example, if you pick the New Zealand Dollar from the left column and move along the horizontal line to the US Dollar, the percentage change displayed in the box will represent NZD (base)/USD (quote).
New Zealand Dollar FAQs
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD), also known as the Kiwi, is a well-known traded currency among investors. Its value is broadly determined by the health of the New Zealand economy and the country’s central bank policy. Still, there are some unique particularities that also can make NZD move. The performance of the Chinese economy tends to move the Kiwi because China is New Zealand’s biggest trading partner. Bad news for the Chinese economy likely means less New Zealand exports to the country, hitting the economy and thus its currency. Another factor moving NZD is dairy prices as the dairy industry is New Zealand’s main export. High dairy prices boost export income, contributing positively to the economy and thus to the NZD.
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) aims to achieve and maintain an inflation rate between 1% and 3% over the medium term, with a focus to keep it near the 2% mid-point. To this end, the bank sets an appropriate level of interest rates. When inflation is too high, the RBNZ will increase interest rates to cool the economy, but the move will also make bond yields higher, increasing investors’ appeal to invest in the country and thus boosting NZD. On the contrary, lower interest rates tend to weaken NZD. The so-called rate differential, or how rates in New Zealand are or are expected to be compared to the ones set by the US Federal Reserve, can also play a key role in moving the NZD/USD pair.
Macroeconomic data releases in New Zealand are key to assess the state of the economy and can impact the New Zealand Dollar’s (NZD) valuation. A strong economy, based on high economic growth, low unemployment and high confidence is good for NZD. High economic growth attracts foreign investment and may encourage the Reserve Bank of New Zealand to increase interest rates, if this economic strength comes together with elevated inflation. Conversely, if economic data is weak, NZD is likely to depreciate.
The New Zealand Dollar (NZD) tends to strengthen during risk-on periods, or when investors perceive that broader market risks are low and are optimistic about growth. This tends to lead to a more favorable outlook for commodities and so-called ‘commodity currencies’ such as the Kiwi. Conversely, NZD tends to weaken at times of market turbulence or economic uncertainty as investors tend to sell higher-risk assets and flee to the more-stable safe havens.
