The Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) is expected to leave rates unchanged at 50% today. The main focus will be on the central bankers’ tone and forward guidance for the first rate cut, ING’s Frantisek Taborsky notes. USD/TRY to trade at 35.000 at year-end “In the latest inflation assessment, while acknowledging slower-than-expected disinflation so […]
USD/CAD has reached our end of year target of 1.40 and we fully expect the pair to reach the 1.42 level we highlighted for Q1, Rabobank’s FX analysts Molly Schwartz and Christian Lawrence note. USD/CAD likely to reach 1.46 next year “That said, given two main drivers we outline below, we now expect further extension […]
Headline inflation in October climbed to 6.2% yoy vs 5.5% in September. This was the first time inflation rose above the upper end of RBI’s 2-6% target range since August 2023. Food and beverage prices, 46% of the weight in the CPI index, were once again the main driver, mainly due to higher vegetable prices, […]
The US Dollar may well appreciate somewhat further in the coming weeks and months once the consequences of Trump’s election victory have been fully priced in, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann notes. Policy of the Trump administration likely to lag behind its announcements “However, the potential is limited. The main consequences have already been factored […]
Impulsive advance in early Asian trade could extend to 7.1550 before levelling off. In the longer run, downward momentum has largely faded; USD could trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range, UOB Group’s FX analysts Quek Ser Leang and Lee Sue Ann notes. USD to trade in a broad 7.0900/7.1800 range 24-HOUR VIEW: “On Monday, USD […]
USD/SGD: Rise over? – OCBC
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USD/SGD fell, tracking the pullback in USD as Trump trade unwinds. Pair was last at 1.3171, OCBC’s FX analysts Frances Cheung and Christopher Wong note. USD pulls back as Trump trade unwinds “Bullish momentum on daily chart faded while RSI eased from near overbought conditions. Support at 1.31 (38.2% fibo), 1.3040 (50 DMA). Resistance at […]
ECB policymakers have perhaps said all that can possibly be said about the outlook for rates this week. The upshot of the range of comments from key officials is that rates will fall a bit more—and will quite likely drop again in December—but the case for a 50bps cut has not been made and more […]
With inflation in abeyance and business confidence low, this is fertile ground for the ECB doves, ING’s Chris Turner notes. ECB policy rate needs to be cut below neutral “Perhaps it is no surprise then that one of the most dovish members, Bank Of Italy’s Fabio Panetta, is speculating that the ECB policy rate does […]
Both OPEC and the IEA revised their oil demand forecasts downwards again this week, Commerzbank commodity analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Oil market to face a significant oversupply next year “OPEC now expects an increase of 1.9 million barrels per day this year and 1.7 million barrels per day next year. That is 100,000 barrels per […]
As expected, the Central Bank of Turkey (CBT) left rates unchanged at 50% and added a bit to its hawkish communication. The statement turned cautious as a result of increasing uncertainty surrounding the pace of inflation improvements. The CBT reiterated that its tight monetary stance would lead to a) a decline in the underlying trend of […]
Thursday seems to be the highlight of the week. On top of global events today, we also have a Central Bank of Turkey meeting and important speakers in Hungary, ING’s FX analyst Frantisek Taborsky notes. Market expectations of a first cut shift to December/January “First thing this morning there is a local conference in Budapest […]
Oil prices have fallen sharply since the beginning of the week, Commerzbank’s FX analyst Carsten Fritsch notes. Price of Brent oil slides below the $75 “The price of Brent oil slid below the $75 per barrel mark in the morning, after trading at just under $79 on Friday. Yesterday, weak data from China initially led […]
