UBS gold forecasts from a note on rising conflict in the Middle East:
- end of 2024 forecast is to USD 2,750
- by Q4 2025 to USD 2,900
In brief from the note:
- anticipate that global markets will face occasional disruptions but do not foresee a full-scale conflict between Israel and Iran
- expect energy flows from the Middle East to continue largely uninterrupted
- equities should be bolstered by a soft economic landing in the US, accompanied by Federal Reserve rate cuts, strong corporate earnings, and optimism regarding the commercialization of artificial intelligence
- Gold remains appealing as a hedge against geopolitical risks and possible shifts in US policy related to the upcoming election. Gold is also likely to benefit from further Fed rate cuts, strong central bank demand, and increased investor interest through exchange-traded funds
- The outlook for the oil market remains positive, with support coming from Chinese stimulus and the Fed’s early easing measures, which should boost energy demand. Meanwhile, the rate of production increases in the US and Brazil has been slowing, and output from Libya is still low. Our base scenario is that Brent crude will trade at around $87 per barrel by year-end. Iran is incentivized to maintain unobstructed energy flows in the region due to its reliance on oil exports. However, any disruption to major oil supply routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, or damage to critical oil infrastructure could push Brent crude prices above $100 per barrel for several weeks.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at www.forexlive.com.
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