Canadian jobs data may not matter all that much for the CAD today. The consensus anticipates a “standard” 25k gain in jobs but a small uptick in unemployment (to 6.5%) and still lofty wage growth (4.8%).

Canadian jobs and US data come next

“This is the sort of thing that will keep the market from pricing in anything more aggressive than 25bps cuts by the BoC for the time being. There is no obvious need at this point for the BoC to pick up the pace of cuts. US jobs data are clearly more important for the short-term direction of USD and USD/CAD—weak US numbers will pull USD/CAD back to the 1.34 area. On expectations data or better likely means USDCAD pushing higher to 1.36+.”

“Short-term spot trends look fairly tepid with the USD chopping narrowly around the 1.35 area over the past day or so. USD losses from the mid-week peak in the upper 1.35s gives the slightly broader technical picture a negative look, however, and spot is resting a little above key short-term support at 1.3490 (potential bear flag base) as the North American session gets going. Loss of support at 1.3490 should see the USD retest the low 1.34 zone at least. Resistance is 1.3580 and 1.3635.”